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Message Posted: Thu, 26 Jun 2003 @ 18:28:41 GMT
I don't know if you'll consider this approach targeted for ordinary people. You'll have to decide.
I believe that modeling the applications and workload mix is the only way to get near 100% accuracy and even then it would depend on your model.
We've modeled applications with very a high degree of accuracy and we've used current applications to predict future application resource consumption with reasonably accurate results.
There is a lot of work involved in this approach, but that is what it will take to get even remotely close to your desired numbers. This modeling includes assumptions, a review of scalability and resource usage on multiple dimensions (# concurrent users, amount of data, categorization of workloads, interaction of workloads, and even request path analysis!!!)
There are more simple ways to plan capacity and they have their individual limitations. I would say that 100% accuracy is a lofty goal if the capacity planning approach also desires to keep the analysis work simple.
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